Why Ford Motor (F) could reach $50 in the near future

For the last 44 consecutive years, the Ford Motor (F) F-150 has been Americas best selling Truck. In 2019, the Ford F-Series was second only to the Apple iPhone, which raked in $55 billion, in terms of total revenue generated. The F-Series generated more revenue than the NFL, MLB, NBA, and the NHL combined, Just something to think about.

On May 19, Ford has unveiled its EV F-150 after Biden had driven it a week prior. The EV’s features are mind blowing exceeding all expectations (Watch MKBHD review or Fords 5 min ad video). It has all the features crucial for it’s target buyers (Construction workers, Farmers, Free-lance delivery drivers, Basically hardworking Blue-collar Americans…) and it’s a Truck which actually looks like a Truck. “Ford knows what pickup owners want,” IHS Markit senior analyst Stephanie Brinley said. More importantly, it’s an F-150 first, an EV second, Ford didn’t abandon the F-150 core design which has been successful for 44 consecutive years.

The reservation now have exceeded 120,000 since it’s debut. An important point the CEO mentioned on the call was that about 75%, or 90,000, are new to Ford, according to the company! If anything, this indicates that Ford is the runner up for Tesla in the EV competition. almost every car manufacturer can make an EV, but only a few (I can count on one hand) can supply enough cars to keep up with demand with superb price and quality.

Now Ford’s EVs are targeting middle class value buyers (High quality, cheap EVs to compete with TESLA and they are destroying Tesla for the past 4 months with sales, more on this on #5). The F-150 starts at $32,500 after Federal tax credit!! Cheaper than any of “Potential (because they don’t exist yet)” competitors with superior car features.

It’s relevant to mention that Ford’s EV sales (counting electric vehicles and hybrids) increased 177% during June, capping off 56,570 units sold so far in 2021.

As Ford promised, F-150 Lightning will deliver more features, and cost less…

* Don’t forget about potential upcoming Ford SUVs, and a Bronco EV which might be announced this year.

Ford-Backed EV Automaker Rivian is planning to IPO as soon as September. It’s looking for a valuation of $70B which is valued more than Ford Right now (Ford is $55.64B at $14.18). Ford has initially invested $500 million in Rivian, but it added much more of an undisclosed amount with the most recent news being $902M in Q1 of 2021.

On Jul 23, it was announced that Rivian closed a $2.5 billion funding round, led by existing investors Ford, Amazon and T. Prior to it, they announced plans to open a second manufacturing plant and U.S States started submitting bids on it.

Farley is quick to say Ford did not invest in the Michigan startup to make money in the stock market. As more companies continue to invest in Rivian, Ford benefits from the increased value of its shares, “but that’s not why we invested,” Farley said in an interview with MotorTrend.

Farley with his 3D chess moves is probably investing in it to make a move to dominate the EV-SUV market too with a Lincoln or Explorer-Rivian car. He understands that the first move is the most important one in the EV Game, and with the Mach-E and F-150, Ford executed it’s moves perfectly! Farley wants to take as much of the market share as possible with low prices, high quality, while maintaining the demand(something which Tesla still isn’t able to). Ford can do that due to their international factories and cheap oversees labor.

Bronco capturing Buyers of other brands:

Prior to the release of the Bronco, it had 190,000 reservations. 66% of the reservations were converted to sales! Additionally, Farley mentioned in the earnings call that 70% of the 125,000 orders it has are customers of other brands.

According to Ford, dealers are keeping Broncos on the lot for an average of 15 days!, with a big chunk of of the buyers coming from jeep. People are killing to get their hands on one. just go on eBay and see for yourself. Bronco first Edition is going for 6 figures with the buy now being approx. 150K$.

I would understand PS5 scalpers, but that happening with Cars, I never would’ve imagined. This shows how the demand of this car is insane and why Ford raised it’s 2021 Revenue expectation from $3.5 billion, to between $9-$10 billion and they’ll probably raise it again in the next quarter.

Ford’s Governmental Fleet 3D chess Strategy:

“Ford clearly has business and government fleets in mind,” Autotrader executive analyst Michelle Krebs said.

Ford revealed details of a less powerful version of its upcoming 2022 F-150 Lightning electric pickup for business and government fleets on Monday. Called the Lightning Pro, it’s equipped with a standard battery that’s good for an estimated 230 miles and costs $39,974, which is the base price for retail F-150 Lightnings.

Ford’s vision to lead the EV market has a “no-brainer” component Elon Musk lacks: Targeting business and government fleet customers with new battery-powered trucks and vans. Ford’s focus on converting Gas fleet buyers to electric models builds on the company’s existing strengths and takes advantage of an opportunity created by Federal tax cuts. They know that they are already the best with no competitors when it comes to the quality or price of the F-150. They will literally destroy their competitors with this approach.

Valuation and Price target

Yes, I’m crazy, but hear me out. It’s obvious what argument I’m going to bring up next(Tesla valuation), but it’s not only about that and I’ll expand more about what I mean to convey.

$Ticker – Market Cap – TTM Revenue MM – TTM EBITDA MM – Revenue Multiple – Ebitda Multiple

(Numbers referenced from -/JeffAmazon- outdated)

TSLA – $679.7B – $31.54B – $4.27B – 21.1X – 202X

NIO – $77.35B – $12B – ($7B) – 7.6X – (NaN)

GM – $74B – $116B – $18B – 0.7X – 4.3X

F – $47.17B – $127.14B – $10B – 0.3X – 4.4X

As you can see, this is crazy and retarded at the same time… Take any of the stocks above and compare it to $F, it’ll always come out undervalued relatively speaking. For the people who are trying to justify these bs valuations, don’t lie to yourselves. Your business degree doesn’t work in this market meta. These highly speculative valuations are built on retail investor hype and young buyers who justify very risky valuations. In meme stocks, retail investors are the market makers and they decide what valuations stocks deserve. $F is superior in most financial metrics compared to the EV meme stocks (imo), yet it’s still at the bottom of the valuation list compared to them.

At that valuation(110$), it won’t even be 50% of Tesla’s 52-week high valuation. It’s a highly speculative valuation, but I don’t see Ford being inferior to the other EV stocks.

Ford is ready to dominate the EV market and it’s just starting!

This article was written by u/faisall1