AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is a golden ticket stock

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is building the first and only global broadband cellular network in space to operate directly with standard, unmodified mobile devices based on our extensive IP and patent portfolio. Our team of engineers and space scientists are on a mission to eliminate the connectivity gaps faced by today’s five billion mobile subscribers and finally bring broadband to the billions who remain unconnected. 

How will AST SpaceMobile change the world?

  • First space-based cell tower network ever to provide 5G direct to your smartphone 🚀 > 🛰 > 📲 using GIANT SATELLITES
  • Will serve as PRIMARY cell service for developing nations where populations aren’t concentrated and cell towers prohibitively expensive to build and maintain
  • Will serve as complementary service in developed nations, as even in the developed world plenty of coverage gaps.
  • $1 trillion total addressable market, 5 billion mobile phones moving in and out of coverage, 51% of world without high speed mobile coverage.

How will AST make ALL THE TENDIES?

  • They will be a wholesaler so they don’t compete with existing mobile providers or need to market (zero acquisition cost > high margins).
  • They have exclusive 50/50 revenue share coverage agreements with AT&T, Vodafone, etc countless others covering 1.5 billion subscribers, with more added each month.
  • Major test launch March 2022, Phase 1 late 2022/early 2023 covering equatorial countries, Phase 2 late 2023/early 2024 for global coverage
  • Fully funded through Phase 1, then revenue from Phase 1 will fund Phase 2, etc.
  • AST has received significant strategic investments from Vodafone, Rakuten (Amazon of Japan), American Tower (largest cell tower company in the world), and Samsung

What about “competitors” like Starlink, etc. who want to steal all the tendies?

  • AST has NO DIRECT COMPETITOR, they are the only ones who will beam 5G high speed directly to your smartphone WITHOUT extra equipment.
  • Starlink beams internet to your home, building, large vehicle and still requires an antenna dish.
  • Traditional sat phone providers require a bulky and expensive special phone
  • Lynk is trying to do satellite service too BUT they are focused on text message only.
  • Recent “Apple rumor” mentions satellite service but actually is not, only is expansion of terrestrial spectrum.
  • AST also has over 1,000 patent claims to protect its proprietary and revolutionary technology.

Financials and Future Price

  • Project 2024 annual revenue of $1 billion, and by 2030 annual revenue of $16 billion with 90% EBIDTA margins.
  • Next main catalyst is final test launch of its BlueWalker 3 satellite in March 2022. They have already launched a successful proof-of-concept satellite previously, but BW3 will be at near production size.
  • Expect major runup to BW3 test date. AST is currently valued at only about $2 billion ($12/share). In 2017, about 7 months prior to Starlink’s first test launch, it was valued at $15 billion ($83/share).
  • With successful final testing and launch of Phase 1 service, if you compare to American Tower (cell tower company) and its valuation based on 2024 revenue, AST next year should be valued at $22 billion ($120/share). If you compare to Starlink’s current valuation in their first year of non-mobile high speed commercial service, it’s valued at $55 billion ($300/share).
  • By 2027, if AST is on track for $16 billion revenues in 2030**, it would be valued at $350 billion ($2000/share), which would be almost 200x returns from now.**

Super low float with institutions adding

  • 75% of outstanding shares are held by CEO, insiders, and above-mentioned strategic investors
  • Another 10% or so are held by major institutions including Blackrock, Vanguard, Point72 (Steve Cohen owner of NY Met’s fund), Greenlight Capital (David Einhorn’s fund), D.E. Shaw, and Morgan Stanley.
  • Only about 25 million shares left in its free float, including almost 15% short interest.

Analysts agree

  • Price targets of $35 from Deutsche Bank and $29 from Barclays.
  • Deutsche Bank adds: “2024 is early in this project’s lifecycle. If we take AST management’s 2030 EBIDTA of more than $16 billion and apply a 10x multiple (which we think is still conservative given the business’ expected growth profile), this implies a 2030 enterprise value of $163 billion (vs $2 billion today). Discounting that EV back to present time at a 15% discount yields a share price of roughly $190 today.”

Risk

  • Does tech actually work? AST has shown through a prototype satellite previously that connected via 4G-LTE on the ground, but at large production/commercial size, won’t know for sure until BW3 launches.
  • Major delay in launch/testing. A few days/weeks delay due purely to launch provider/bad weather issues is fine, but if AST says they are delaying due to tech issue or they are not ready, that would not be good. They are launching via SpaceX rocket which has a very high success rate, so launch provider is not a major concern.

This article is written by u/Accomplished-Wait-17.