Progenity (PROG) a high short squeeze play

Progenity, Inc. engages in the provision of molecular and specialized diagnostic tests to clinicians. Its products include Preparent Carrier Test, Innatal Prenatal Screen, Riscover Hereditary Cancer Test, and Resura Prenatal Test.

Case for Short-Squeeze

  1. Prog has one of the highest SI (about 56%) while only one entity is trying to keep the price suppressed (Athyrium).
  2. CTB continues to rise everyday as per Ortex data
  3. Ortex has issued all 3 signals of short-squeeze on Prog
  4. It’s a penny stock at a price that anyone who is in stock market investing can easily buy and hold to add to buying pressure.
  5. Price jump from 0.88 to 2.5 brought in a lot of 0.5, 1, and 1.5 calls option ITM for 10/15
  6. The company shorting it doesn’t have unlimited money supply to keep the price suppressed unlike a hedgefund that can/does divert all their money to control any stock they want.
  7. Catalysts: Prog already got a patient approved October 5th but no PR because of the Athyium manipulation below (personal opinion).

a. Evidence (Look at the date of recent patent)

8. No unlimited money for Athyrium to short: Athyrium isn’t in core business of shorting to make money and continue to do until they win. This factor alone along with buying pressure will force them to wave white flag within days-not weeks.

Why Athyrium is shorting is and is in trouble now.

  1. Athyrium has a pattern of suppressing price to buy low as many shares as they can to take control of the company and then sell at a premium (Evidence)
  2. However, this time around Athyrium gets caught with Prog where retail picked this stock and brought into light of short-squeeze play.
  3. Shorting means that this insider has to cover its short position eventually and they don’t have enough time and only hope is more share issue which is not happening until November 20th and actually may not even happen if squeeze happens before end of October.
  4. They hoped that retail eye won’t catch prog and hence they can cover lower when the time comes
  5. Evidence of Athyrium manipulation: (https://www.athyrium.com/case-study-verenium.php). This article clearly shows that Athyrium is not new to this and was able to do this before, only difference is that Prog got retail attention making it difficult to manipulate easily.

a. Barcoding: The price is experiencing barcoding last whole week where it moves by 10 cents and then whole day is a move of max 4-5 cents each day. This is their tactic to continue buying lower to accumulate and hope retail pressure doesn’t come in.

b. Way to break barcoding: With enough volume in even 1 day, tables will be turned and any price above $2.5 in coming week gives majority control to retail to make squeeze happen.

Scenario 1 of Short Squeeze.

1. With enough volume (500 Mil to a billion), the play will be totally out of Athyrium’s hands because it can lead to a price range of $2.40-$3.25 hopefully this coming week.

2. This will force Athyrium to cover its position and trigger a gamma-squeeze effect prior to 10/15.

Scenario 2 of Short Squeeze.

1. Continuing with first scenario, the price will be in $5 and above range in following week of 10/15

2. Buyout option is still on the table which means Prog can never be sold under $5 and price decided for buyout is $8-$10 so every retail investor makes money while Athyrium goes home defeated with their lesser shares and whatever price.

Scenario 3 of Short Squeeze.

1. The buying pressure from scenario 3 continues leading the prog price in high double digits, leading to no share issue possibility at all and buyout still happens which means still atleastt 50%-70% premium on that price (Let’s say $25 + 50%-70%).

Scenario 4 of Short Squeeze (Least desirable for retail investors).

1. Athyirum continues to do its shit plan and keeps price down before buyout. They will cover at lower cost and everyone holding shares makes just good enough profit at $4 price buyout.

How to make squeeze happen:

  1. Significant ITM calls buy volume for those who love option play.
  2. One day of 500-billion in volume with buying pressure to just start the squeeze this week
  3. Above 2 points will lead to gamm-squeeze on Friday which will have spill-over effect causing price to soar significantly next week.

This article was written by u/JellyfishComplete370

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